Sunday, September 12, 2010

Giants back in second after terrible offense catches up to them. But all signs point to a win today!


The Giants are 6-3 on their current road trip including last night's loss.  The crazy thing is they are batting a meager .205 on this trip.  

Other than July, when the Giants scored more runs than anybody in baseball, runs have been extremely hard to come by for this team.  Since the additions of Cody Ross and Jose Guillen they seem to be having even more trouble scoring runs than they did before.  Now I'm not blaming the Giants lack of offensive production on the acquisitions of those guys but the timing sure is odd.

The bottom line is the offense needs to produce.  The Giants realistically could have won every game on this road trip.  The most games they gave up in a game was 4, which they gave up to the Dodgers in back to back games, in the two 4 run games they were 1-1.  It's not as if the Home/Road BA splits for the Giants as a team are that dramatic (.269 home/.248 road), they hit more home runs on the road (62 home vs. 74 road), but they strike out slightly more on the road (443 or 19% of the time at home to 529 or 21% of the time on the road.  K% are necessary to get a true understanding of the strikeouts since the Giants have about 300 more ABs on the road than they do at home since they don't bat in all 9 innings in a home win and do in a road win.  they also have played 5 more road than home games to this point)  They also score more runs on the road (305 to 315 road) again since they have played more games there.

So the Giants, according to the statistics, should be able to hit better and score more runs than they have been doing over the last 9 games.

They haven't.  So this bodes well for the Giants in a number of ways.  First, they are due to score more than 1 run today (although the Padres probably are too) second, Mat Latos has allowed 2 runs or less in 15 straight games which is a record.  He is also due to give up a few more runs than he has been.  (So was Josh Johnson the last time the Giants faced him and they snapped his streak). Tim Lincecum owns a 2.15 career ERA against the Padres while Mat Latos owns a 0.96 ERA against them. (although Lincecum has thrown 79.1 innings against the Pads compared to Latos' 28.1 IP against the Giants).  Latos' ERA against the Giants is the lowest against any other team he has thrown more than 12 innings against in his career. (the lowest being Arizona with a 0.75 ERA in 12 IP)

What do all these random statistics mean?

Well, on the surface they point to a Giants victory today.  The Giants, statistically speaking, score more runs today and give up about as many runs as they have been allowing.  Mat Latos is due to see his ERA vs. the Giants spike and Tim Lincecum is on track to have his stats against the Padres remain roughly the same.

But this is baseball and they play the games for a reason.  So sit down with your favorite beverage, some good food, a few friends, and watch the Giants battle for their share of first place in the N.L. West!

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