Sunday, August 15, 2010

The Giants will not win the NL west if they can not figure out the Padres


There is no way around it.  if the Giants can't figure out the San Diego Padres they will NOT win the NL west.  End of story.  They may not even win the wild card when you consider that the current lead that the Giants enjoy is a measly .5 game.  Then you consider that the Giants have 7 more games against these Padres and things start to get scary.

There is really nothing that explains the Padres Dominance.

Do the Padres have better pitching?

Well sort of, coming into today the Padres held the edge in team ERA at 3.24 to the Giants 3.46.

What about hitting?

The Giants are sporting a team BA of .261 which is good for 5th in the NL while the Padres are sporting a .251 average which is good for 13th among the 16 NL teams.

Well the Padres must be scoring more runs than the Giants!

Giants 516 runs Padres 500

Power, that's it the Padres must be hitting more homeruns than the Giants!

Giants again, 106 HRs to 93 for the Pads

There is nothing to explain the Padres dominance over the Giants this season.  The Giants have played every other team well this season.  The lowest win % they have against any other team in which they have played more than 3 games against is .417 which is against Colorado and they are 5-7 against them.

You think the Padres are dominating the NL west?  Nope. They are dominating the Giants and Diamondbacks.  Against the Giants and D-backs the Pads are a combined 17-6.  Against the Dodgers and Rockies they are 9-17.

The Giants bats just fall asleep against the Padres.  they have allowed 40 runs to the Padres in 11 games and have a 2-9 record against them.  They have allowed 43 to the Dodgers and are 6-6 against them.  They have allowed 45 runs to the Rockies and are 5-7 against them.  37 runs to the D-backs and are 7-2 against them.

There is really nothing in the numbers that can explain why the Giants should be getting dominated by the Padres other than just dumb luck.  The Padres and Giants aren't that different that the W-L record should be that different.  Neither team holds a decided edge in any statistical category other than record against each other.

The head to head record is something that is in the Giants heads by now.  Which is funny because snatching a victory from the jaws of defeat like they did yesterday would seem to be the kind of thing that would set them rolling against the Padres but it wasn't maybe this was just karma biting the Giants for beating up on the Padres in all those years the Pads were the laughingstock of the league.

The only good thing about the fact that the Giants and Padres are so statistically evenly matched against one another means that, according to the law of averages, things need to even out.  If that is correct, then the Giants have a lot of winning ahead of them over the next 7 games Vs. the Pads.

Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum is another headscratcher.  You would think that a guy who had 6 strikeouts in 3.2 IP would be dominating.  But then you realize that those 6 Ks were sandwiched in between 11 baserunners(8 hits and 3 walks) and you realize that Tim pitched horrible.

Now those 8 hits were all singles so it's not like the Padres were knocking the ball all over the yard, they were dinking and doinking him to death.

I would chalk today's struggles up to just more Padres mojo if Timmy weren't struggling against other teams just as bad.  It's not like he is struggling terribly as the guys at McCovey chronicles show isn't the case.  It's just that he is struggling at inopportune times like today against the Padres.

Like I said, it's another headscratcher for sure, but it's a headscratcher that the Giants need to solve or it's going to be a long August and September.

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